Flare Forecasting

Using the daily observation of the photosphere performed by the Equatorial Spar of INAF - Catania Astrophysical Observatory, we provide an indication of the probabilities that each sunspot group visible on the solar disc may host solar flares of C-, M- and X- class.
The probabilities shown below are calculated using the USSPS acquired on 17 April 2024 at 07:00 UT. They are valid for the subsequent 24 hours.
The sunspot groups capability of hosting flares is based on the Poisson statistics of five parameters: number of sunspots and pores, projected area of sunspot group in tens of millionths of the solar hemisphere, group type according to Zurich classification, type of penumbra of the main sunspot, and relative importance between leading sunspot and density of the sunspot population.

Forecasting method description
NOAA AR
Catania Sunspot Group
Flare C-class
Flare M-class
Flare X-class


3633


49
14%
1%
0%


3634


50
33%
6%
1%


51
8%
0%
0%


3636


53
18%
2%
0%


NNNN


54
9%
1%
0%


3642


55
7%
0%
0%


3641


56
24%
4%
0%


57
8%
0%
0%


3637


58
14%
1%
0%


NNNN


59
24%
4%
1%


NNNN


60
26%
5%
1%


3639


61
42%
9%
1%


3643


62
41%
9%
1%


3644


63
11%
1%
0%


64
11%
1%
0%


NNNN


65
11%
1%
0%
Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania
Via S.Sofia 78, 95123 Catania ITALY
Phone: (+39) 0957332111; FAX: (+39) 095330592
E-Mail (PEC): inafoacatania@pcert.postecert.it