Flare Forecasting


Using the daily observation of the photosphere performed by the Equatorial Spar of INAF - Catania Astrophysical Observatory, we provide an indication of the probabilities that each sunspot group visible on the solar disc may host solar flares of C-, M- and X- class.
The probabilities shown below are calculated using the USSPS acquired on 03 February 2023 at 08:00 UT. They are valid for the subsequent 24 hours.
The sunspot groups capability of hosting flares is based on the Poisson statistics of five parameters: number of sunspots and pores, projected area of sunspot group in tens of millionths of the solar hemisphere, group type according to Zurich classification, type of penumbra of the main sunspot, and relative importance between leading sunspot and density of the sunspot population.


Forecasting method description
NOAA AR
Catania Sunspot Group
Flare C-class
Flare M-class
Flare X-class



3201


62
7%
0%
0%



3206


67
15%
2%
0%



3207


68
29%
5%
1%



3208


70
11%
1%
0%





71
11%
1%
0%